JoCo Forest Fire Watch

Neil and Deming wrap-up

Happily, unless things go sideways, this will be my last report on the lightening strike fires in our area.

Of these, my recent focus has been mainly on the Neil and Deming Fires because of location (Neil) and size (Deming). Other fires in our area are being successfully fought by firefighters and have not grown appreciably.

Please keep in mind that all estimates of how many acres have burned for these fires are estimates only, and they change from day to day.

Deming Fire is listed as having burned 250 acres and, from the latest satellite images, appears to have cooled:  no hot spots were detected.  Figure 1.

Firefighters have seemingly lined enough of the fire and dropped enough retardant on it have it mostly knocked down. Let's hope so.

Neil Fire had been moving slowly to the SSE along the southbound lanes of I5. Dozers have now cut a good, solid line ahead of its main direction of growth while firefighters and air drops have so far kept the fire from growing much, if at all, in other directions. Neil too seems mostly knocked down.  Figure 1.

This fire's footprint,  which has changed very little in the last few days, has been estimated at 250 acres, 125 acres, 200 acres and now the estimate is back to 250 acres.

Figure 1.  (Click on the image to show it in its entirety and to enlarge it).  Notice the lack of satellite detected hot spots in the area of Deming fire (upper left, yellow pin).  Notice, too, that satellites identified only 2 hot spots in the area burned by the Neil Creek Rd. Fire (bottom right, green pin). 

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Deming Gulch, OR — 1

I don't have much on the Deming Gulch Fire yet, but here's what I do have.

The Fire started about 2 days ago from a lightening strike and is located roughy 6 miles Southwest of Talent.

The fire has not grown much in the last 24 - 36 hours, and it's currently estimated to have burned about 250 acres.

At the moment, no evacuation alerts have been issued for the fire, though there are structures located within a mile from the fire's West South West extent.

My latest information indicated that there are six 20 man crews assigned to the fire, as well as dozers and aircraft (several Very Large Tankers — VLTs), and aircraft will continue to be used as necessary.

The terrain is steeply-sloped and tough, yet the fire is at least 10% lined.

With hotter weather and brisk breezes forecast to arrive in the next few days, the crews are making every effort to get as much of the fire lined as possible.

Figure 1.  Most recent satellite images.  The pin labeled "Deming Gulch" marks the approximate location of the nearest structure to the fire.  Notice that most of the most recent hot spots are located to the Northeast of the pin.  Click to enlarge.

Figure 2. Click to see the entire image and to enlarge it.  This illustrates the fire's estimated perimeter and footprint.  Notice that there are relatively few new spots. Click to see the entire image and to enlarge it.  (I don't know why the image isn't completely represented in the post itself . . .)

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Neil Creek Road, OR — 2

Last night the estimated size of Neil Fire was cut in half, from having burned 250 acres to having burned 125 acres (by overflight). This morning, the perimeter was revised upwards to 200 acres. FWIW, I'm more confident in the 200 acre figure since IC uploaded that figure to NIFC (National Interagency Fire Center).

The leading edge of the fire is mostly towards the South-South East. It is burning away from Ashland and the less populated areas south of Ashland, indicated by the most recent hot spots.  (Both figures 1 and 2 , best on Fig. 2).

The perimeter on the fire's east side is along I-5, and I have not seen reports that it has jumped the freeway.  Fig. 2

The crews continued through the night to hold, build and strengthen fire lines, and hope to have the fire completely lined before high temperatures and brisk winds arrive later this week.

The Level 2 evacuation notices remain in effect, with some Level 1 notices added.

Last night's traffic report indicated that 1 southbound and 1 northbound lane were closed from roughly Milepost 8 to Milepost 11.

Figure 1.  Latest Satellite Images.  Notice that the newist hot spots are on the south of the fire as it grows away from the most populous areas. Click to enlarge.

(Hot spots across and on I-5 are aberrant projections due to the angle of the satellites' angles with respect to the ground location of the heat . . . like the difference of your shadow lengths at different times of the day.)  

Figure 2.  Footprint of Neil Creek Road fire.  From oldest to newest hot spots:  Yellow, Orange, Light Red,  Dark Red.  Click to enlarge.

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Heppsie/Poole, OR — 2

    Unless things change for the worse, this will be my final post on these two fires.

The Heppsie Mountain and Poole fires are located about 20 miles to the east of Medford. They were both started by lightning strikes delivered by the recent electrical storm.

Happily, my concern about Heppsie and Poole fires merging has so far proved entirely unwarranted:  the two fires remain separated.

Despite really rough terrain (steep slopes) and windy conditions, the fire crews have defended and extended the lines around the fires.

Except for a single ½ acre slop-over of the Poole Fire (which was attacked successfully) neither fire has grown appreciably.

Heppsie Fire's area is estimated to be about 40 acres and is considered to be about 50% lined, and 30% contained.

Poole's area is estimated to be 12 - 15 acres. Over night, despite high winds, crews held about 80% of yesterday's line.

Figure 1.  Latest satellite images of Heppsie Mountain and Poole fires.  Click to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Reminder of areas issued a Level 2 evacuation notice.  Click to enlarge.

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Neil Creek Road, OR — 1

Neil Creek 7-9-25

(Four Corners Fire Update: The fire is now 100% contained and is considered "inactive.")

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The recent and numerous lightening strikes in Southern Oregon have started many fires. Most of these are small and most have been squashed by prompt detection and firefighter attacks.

Some have simmered and then grown quickly, with one such being the Neil Creek fire which is located south of Ashland on the west side of I-5 was first observed about 24 hours ago.

The fire was estimated to be between 1 and 3 acres and fire assets were immediately dispatched.

By about 3:30 PM, the fire was estimated to have burned about 25 acres and within a few hours to have reached 200 acres.

The latest estimate is that it has consumed about 250 acres, and it is burning away from Ashland. (I have not found an image of the fire's perimeter.)

Overnight, one dozer cut fire line and crews extinguished spot fires caused by embers carried by the wind.

There are on-order six engines, five 20-person crews, two water tenders and four bulldozers which are expected to arrive today, with today's goal being to continue to building the fire line.

Level 2 evacuation notices are in effect for areas around the fire. See Fig 2.

Figure 1.  Latest satellite images of the Neil Creek Road Fire.  I believe the hot spots on and to the the east side of I-5 are artifacts.  Click to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Area covered by Level 2 Evacuation notice.  Click to enlarge.

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Heppsie/Poole, OR — 1

I've become aware of a new situation which involves the possible merger of 2 (or 3??) fires roughly 22 miles Southeast of Shady Cove in Jackson County.

The Heppsie Mountain fire (having grown to 50 acres) and the Poole Fire (now 10 acres) were originally separate, but in the last 24 hours have grown close enough together that a Level 1 Evacuation notice is in effect for the region. A 6 acre "vegetation fire" SE from the Poole Fire, not far from it. (See 3 below.)

The Incident Command (IC) team is taking this situation seriously: the terrain is steep, and there are many hazard trees that pose a serious danger to the crew members who worked overnight.

The resources for today are expected to be 100 personnel (4 crews, 20 members each), 5 dozers, 2 tenders and 1 engine. assigned to and working the fire(s).

Additionally, two Large Air Tankers (LATs), two Type 1 helicopters (the biggest of the helos) and an air attack plane are on order or have arrived.

(Edited to include its approximate location in Jackson County)

Fig 1.  Latest satellite image.  Click to enlarge.

Fig 2.  Flight path of Type 1 helo and of a LAT heading west (for more retardant, water?).  Click for full image and to enlarge.

Fig 3.  Current Level 1 evacuation area.  Click to enlarge.

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Four Corners Fire, OR — 1

There have been numerous new fire starts in the last 24 hours, likely due to lightening strikes yesterday.

Most of those starts are currently small (much smaller than 5 acres) and not very aggressive.  But one seems more aggressive than the others and though I don't yet know its size, the first responders are already hitting it hard.

Originally named the Colestin Fire, it has been renamed the Four Corners Fire.

The fire is located about 2 miles SW of Mt. Ashland and is burning in timber. "A full ground and air response" has been mounted, and there are at least 2 aircraft on scene (one fixed wing, the other a helo).  (See below)

If this fire grows significantly, I'll provide reports.  For the time being I'm being optimistic and hoping that the powerful initial response will prove the fire's undoing.

Fig.1  Latest satellite image showing location of Four Corners relative to Mt. Ashland.  There appear to be roads located nearby that could provide both ground access to the fire and serve as fire breaks.  Click to enlarge.

 

 

Fig.2. Flight patterns of two aircraft (1 fixed wing, 1 helo) attending to the fire.  Click for full view and to enlarge.

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Upper Applegate, OR - 3

This will be my final post on the Upper Applegate Fire unless something goes bigly wrong.

The fire has not grown, and last night crews finished lining the Fire while adding more hose.

This morning, the fire is completely lined and is encircled by hoses, so any hot spots near the perimeter can be attacked quickly and effectively.

Crews are mopping up to create depth between the perimeter line and any hot spot within the perimeter.  

Crews are also monitoring the surrounding terrain for any hot spots outside the perimeter.

Tree fallers are still removing dead trees on the fire's north perimeter for safety reasons.

Evacuation 3 levels have been reduced, and shelters for evacuated people are being closed. All roadways that were previously closed are now open.

An IR overflight was scheduled for last night, but the aircraft was unable to fly.

The latest satellite data covering Upper Applegate Fire shows no hot spots . . . At. All.

(A second fire some distance from [and I believe unrelated to] Upper Applegate and was attacked by Upper Applegate resources, including helos. This fire was held at 8 acres and is being mopped up.)

Figure 1.  Perimeter of Upper Applegate.  Click to enlarge.

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Upper Applegate, OR - 2

This morning, Upper Applegate fire is estimated to have burned 470 acres, which is a revision "up" from yesterday afternoon's estimate of 350 acres (the most recent report is that the fire has not increased in size since yesterday). 

(Keep in mind that these size-estimates are just that: estimates. They can be made from the air by "eyeball-estimate"; from someone walking the perimeter with a GPS [usually more precise than eye-balling]; with the most precise estimate being those from IR overflights. I know only that there is no IR overflight info yet available, and this estimate is likely from a non-IR "eyeball-overflight.")

The access to this fire is better than to fires in remote areas which lack roads and may be burning in super-steep terrain. That's the good news. The bad news is that there are more people and structures at risk here than would be in remote areas. (Yes, it's obvious, but worth keeping in mind.)

The fire was first reported just after noon yesterday as a fast-moving grass fire, which was driven by wind (up to gusts of 25 mph in the afternoon), dry vegetation and heat, which combined pushed the fire uphill.

The cause is listed as: "Human"

Overnight, crews have managed to line about 70% of the fire's perimeter and get hoses around roughly half the fire. The fire is 0% contained.

The northern perimeter remains unlined, the problem being the many snags which endanger crews. Fallers will eliminate the snags and create safe working conditions for the fire crews.

So far there are 204 personnel assigned (including 8 crews), 7 engines, 6 dozers and 3 tenders. Two structural protection crews are on-site.

Two helos and 1 air attack plane (single engine? Twin engine?) are assigned to fighting the fire, with large air tankers dropping retardant when needed.

Fig. 1.  Most recent satellite images.  Not much change from yesterday, and most differences are likely due to the satellite images taken from slightly different angles than yesterday.  Click to enlarge.

Fig. 2.  Perimeter, is an airborne "eyeball-estimate."  Click to enlarge.

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Upper Applegate Fire, OR - 1

Alas, we now have our first forest fire for the 2025 fire season.

There's a new fire in Jackson county just south of Ruch so there is not much information on it yet.

By noon, it had burned by about 350 acres and the weather conditions (wind and heat) steep terrain and dry vegetation are driving the fire's spread. Evacuations (including Level 3 — "Leave Now") have been ordered. (Second map)

The fire is being fought aggressively on the ground and supported by air assets which include both air tankers and helos. One Very Large Tanker has been requested and I'm guessing it will arrive tomorrow. I know the aircraft are dropping retardant, and maybe water as well.

Additional resources have been requested and will arrive tomorrow.

Since this is a very new fire, information is sketchy. I have not found any mention of "cause."

The first map is of the most recent satellite hot spots.

Figure 1.  Satellite hotspots from about 2:00 PM today.  Click to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Initial evacuation map.  Click to enlarge.

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