JoCo Forest Fire Watch

Douglas County - Milepost 98 and Devils Knob - 5

For an overview of the relative locations of these 2 fires, see the first figure here.

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Milepost 98 (MP-98):  There has not been much movement on this fire, so unless the fire becomes much more active, this will be my final report on MP-98.

There has been no IR overflight of MP-98.  The fire has been, well, resized from yesterday's 205 acres to 240 acres due to more accurate mapping.  (So it's about what it was 2 days ago - ed).  

It is listed as 0% contained and is staffed with 366 personnel, including 14 crews.  Equipment includes 11 engines and 12 tenders.  (I found no mention of air resources, though air assets are available.)

Throughout yesterday, crews mopped-up where successful tactical firing operations had been completed during previous operational periods.

Firefighters continue to plumb portions of the perimeter to deliver a steady water supply to aid in minimizing the progression of the fire.

Devils Knob:  According to last night's overflight, the fire now stands at 4,075 acres (+ 375 acres).  Most of that growth occurred along the fire's south front in the Flat Creek drainage.

There are 489 personnel (including 13 hand crews) assigned Devils Knob, and they are supported by 17 engines and 10 tenders.  Though not mentioned, there are air assets available and being used when required and conditions permit.

The IR interpreter report follows:

On the east side of the fire, a finger of intense heat was detected along a road (possibly a burn operation?). Some spotting appears to have occurred to the east in that area.

Another area of intense heat was detected on the west side of the fire near Middle Ridge

The majority of the fire contained scattered heat.

Yesterday, high temperatures and low relative humidity promoted active burning on of Devil’s Knob Fire, and today the fire's behavior will be similar because the weather will be similar.

However, the weather is expected to change significantly tomorrow with higher humidity, cooler temperatures and (at least some) precipitation.

Yesterday, crews successfully established anchor points from which hand and dozer lines continue to be constructed in order to protect values-at-risk near the fire's perimeter.

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The first figure is of the latest MP-98 satellite hot spots (there was no IR overflight).  There are fewer hot spots than yesterday, most are 6 - 12 hours old at time of capture and they are more confined (though that could be an artifact). Click to enlarge.

The second image is of last night's IR map.  Notice the spotting to the east (arrow) and the location of Flat Creek (arrow).  Most of the growth is to the south into the Flat Creek Drainage.  Click to enlarge.

The third figure is Knob Creek's perimeter with last night's satellite hotspots superimposed on it.  Again, fire activity is largely in the Flat Creek Drainage. Click to enlarge. 

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Douglas County - Milepost 98 and Devils Knob - 4

For an overview of the relative locations of these 2 fires, see the first figure here.

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Both MP-98 and Devils Knob are currently being managed by the same IC team (IMT Northwest 13).  

The numbers of threatened and destroyed structures for the 2 fires are grouped together:  28 single residencies are threatened while 69 minor structures are threatened with 1 destroyed.  Information from different sources is inconsistent/not equally current.

I believe air support (helos) are available for both fires, as needed.

Milepost 98 (MP-98):  The size of MP-98 has been revised down to 205 acres (— about 45 acres).  It is listed as 0% contained (??) and there are 326 personnel assigned to it.

There was no IR overflight of MP-98.

From this morning's briefing, I believe the fire was only moderately active yesterday/last night, and 50% - 60% of the perimeter (in the North, Northeast and Northwest) is being mopped up to a depth of 30 feet (but isn't contained??).  Hoses and pumps are being laid around the perimeter and the "lower" (south?) perimeter is being lined directly and indirectly.

Devils Knob:  According to last night's IR overflight's map, the fire grew to about 3,700 acres (+ about 250 acres) in the last 24 hours.  

The growth occurred mostly on its south perimeter, with some growth midway along its west perimeter.  There are about 353 personnel assigned to it.

This fire appears to be more of problem than MP-98.  It was very active well into the evening.  In response to intense internal heat, it threw embers which caught "transport winds" and spotted ¼ mile to the south.  

The spots were hot, grew quickly and they themselves spotted further south, eventually involving the Flat Creek drainage.  

Hand crews and dozers will continue to cut direct and indirect lines to get in front of the fire.

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Figure 1 is of last night's MP-98 satellite hot spots.  It should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

Figure 2 is of the IR map from last night's flight.  I've added labels that might prove useful.  Click to enlarge.

Figure 3 is of an excerpt of today's operation map.  I've labeled some of the more important items.  Click to enlarge.

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Douglas County - Milepost 98 and Devils Knob - 3

For an overview of the relative locations of these 2 fires, see the first figure here.

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Milepost 98 (MP-98):  MP-98 has grown to about 250 acres (+30) since my last report.  

Other than that, there's not much information (new or old) to be reported on MP-98 other than the most recent satellite hot spots. (MP-98 was not included in last night's overflight of Devils Knob, so I don't have either an IR map or a perimeter of the fire.)

Hand crews continue to strengthen (indirect?) lines and heavy equipment is on site.  That equipment includes dozers, engines and logging machinery (the latter for removing hazardous trees).  

Air assets (helos) have been available (but I don't know if any are assigned).

As I understand it, Devils Knob and MP-98 are sharing resources.

Devils Knob:  According to last night's IR interpreter, Devils Knob has now burned an estimated 3,450 acres (+ about 730 acres).

Old information, recently available, lists 12 residences endangered and 1 minor structure destroyed, with 120 personnel (including 7 hand crews) on site.

The fire's growth is mainly to the south, with some growth to the east and a little to the west.  The fire has not grown towards the communimty of Tiller, which remains separated from the northern perimeter of the fire by about 5 miles.

The north and northwest perimeters have dozer lines cut and so far seem to be holding the fire (speculation).  To the east the crews seem to be using Devils Knob Road as a line, though the fire has jumped it and spotted over it.

The IR interpreter's Devils Knob report is useful for evaluating last night's IR overflight.  The interpreter writes:

The southern portion of the fire continued to grow with scattered and intense heat and some spotting ahead of the main fire perimeter.

An area of growth with intense heat grew to the east across Devils Knob Road. That area contained a lot of spotting ahead of the main fire perimeter.

The interior of the fire contained scattered heat. The southern portion of the fire contained much more heat than the northern portion of the fire.

Last night's satellite hot spots are quite a good fit with the interpreter's IR perimeter.

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The first figure is of last night's satellite MP-98 hot-spots.  Click to enlarge.

(I was struck by the appearance of 4 new heat spots just to the north of yesterday's satellite picture (between arrows).  I don't know what that means.  The fire was described yesterday as having an indirect line around it.  So these hot spots could be from a buffer area between the line and the fire's edge, maybe even a burn operation.  The heat might also be the fire's growth, or even a perspective error intrinsic to low-angle satellite images.)

The second figure is of last night's IR map of Devils Knob.  Arrows marked by Ds are an approximation of the dozer lines.  Arrows marked by DKs approximate the Devils Knob Road.  Otherwise, the image should be self-explanatory  Click to enlarge.

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Douglas County - Milepost 98 and Devils Knob - 2

Milepost 98:  Caused by a car fire which spread to grassland.

In the last ~ 24 hours, MP-98 grew from ~120 acres to about 200 acres (about +80 acres).  

Lowish temperatures favored the crews both during the day and throughout the night by slowing the fires growth.  The daytime temperature was held down due to smoke and clouds, and at night the temperatures dropped as is normally the case.

When daytime smoke cleared, aircraft were able to support ground crews.

Because of the favorable conditions and air support, crews were able to create new indirect lines and strengthen existing lines.  By 6:00 PM the fire was completely surrounded by indirect lines.

Devils Knob Fire:  Cause unknown.

The fire grew from yesterday's estimates and last night's IR report lists the fire as having reached roughly 2,666 acres (+ about 900 acres), mainly to the south-south east.  

There were many spot fires ahead of the main perimeter (see second figure).

Smoke hindered the use of aviation yesterday morning but kept temperatures down.  The lowered temperatures decreased the fire's activity and hand crews and dozers were able to construct direct and indirect firelines.

From the afternoon on, the smoke cleared and fire activity increased substantially. This resulted in the fire's 900 acre growth, mostly to the south-south-east away from Tiller.

The newly aggressive fire triggered some areas under Level 1 evacuation notices (Get Ready) to jump to Level 3 (Go NOW!).  

The IR report follows:

The fire appears to have grown primarily to the SE towards Savage Butte.  The SE portion of the fire contained primarily intense heat while the NW portion of the fire contained primarily scattered heat.

Some areas of intense heat occurred adjacent to the west side of Devils Knob Road. Spots were detected on the east side of that road.

A lot of spotting was occurring to the south ahead of the main perimeter of the fire.

The southern most spot mapped was approximately .5 miles north of Flats Ranch.

There was no IR overflight of MP-98, the first figure is of the satellite hotspots.  Click to enlarge.

This image is of the IR heat map from last night's IR overflight.  The fire has grown away from the community of Tiller, which remains about 5 miles to the Northwest of its perimeter.  Click to enlarge.

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Douglas County - Milepost 98 and Devils Knob - 1

Two new fires are burning in Douglas County:  

Milepost 98 Fire.  The Milepost 98 fire (MP-98) is burning just southwest of Canyonville.   It's cause is reportedly an automobile accident that occurred yesterday evening (~5:15) in the Southbound lane of I-5.  It grew very fast in grass and is now reported to have burned about 120 acres.  

It's danger was the speed with which it grew coupled with its proximity to dwellings and property.  Accordingly, a Level 2 evacuation order (Get Set) was soon raised to Level Three (Leave NOW).  Its spread was limited last night by low temperatures, and resources were soon on site attacking it with dozers and hand crews constructing indirect lines.

Devils Knob Fire.  The Devils Knob fire is located roughly 5 miles to the southeast of Tiller and as of now has grown to about 1750 acres.  I don't know what caused it yet, but its growth, like that of the MP-98 fire, slowed during the night due to low temperatures.

It looks to me like there are appreciably fewer lives and structures at risk, and its danger is its size and rapid growth.  As of now, a Level 1 (Get Ready) evacuation area has been is located to the south and southeast of the fire.

The resources on hand will be supplemented by additional crews and equipment.  Due to the amount of smoke present, air reconnaissance was not possible this morning but may be this afternoon.

The first map is an overview of the most recent satellite images of both the MP 98 and Devils Knob fires.  Click to enlarge. 

 

The second map is a detailed view of the MP-98 Fire.  Click to enlarge.

The third map is of the current evacuation areas for the MP-98 Fire.  Click to enlarge.

The fourth map is a detailed view of the satellite hot spots of Devils Knob.  Click to enlarge.

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Dixon - 1

Sorry I missed Dixon until this morning.

On Saturday about 2:40 PM, a fire broke out about 30 miles north of Medford. Originally called the Tiller Trail Fire, it was subsequently renamed the Dixon Fire.

Since its start, the fire has grown to roughly 2,000 acres.

The fire began in windy conditions and initially grew very quickly. Evacuation notices of all 3 levels (1 = Ready, 2 = Get set. 3 = Go) were issued even while local resources attacked the blaze.

As of today, 1 residence has been destroyed (on Saturday) and 49 additional residences are threatened, while 3 minor structures have been destroyed and 64 are threatened.

The fire's very rapid initial growth and the immediate danger to structures prompted the governor to issue an emergency conflagration order Saturday evening and teams (including structural protection crews) were quickly assembled and dispatched to the fire.

The resources now on site include 618 personnel (16 crews), 12 helos and 37 engines. (Other assets not mentioned probably include fixed wing aircraft and tenders.)

The fire's growth has since slowed substantially and crews have been able to create lines quickly, some of those utilizing roadways, and have had good access for dozer operations. The fire is almost completely lined and some crews are laying water lines even as other crews have begun mopping up (especially along the north west and north perimeter.

The primary area of today's effort will likely be the south and southeast portions of the fire, and the fire is to be attacked heavily by aircraft today.

Today's overall objectives are to tighten up current lines (mainly along the north and east lengths of the perimeter) construct some indirect line (along the southeast portion of the perimeter).  

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The first image shows the fire's location relative to Medford and Grants Pass.  Click to enlarge.

The second image is an enlargement of last night's IR overflight.  Click to enlarge.

The third image is of today's briefing map.  Notice how much of the fire crews have been able to line.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 14

Unless there is a dramatic change, this will be my final post on Park

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For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park Fire has grown from yesterday's total of about 426,530 acres to today's total of about 428,744 acres (+ roughly 2,215 acres).  It remains about 34% contained.

The resources available for it are about the same as previously reported, with a slight reduction of personnel.  

The noteworthy statistic, new to me, is the helo mix of types:  there are 18 Type 1 helos, 4 Type 2s and 5 type 3s.  The Type 1 helos are huge.

The fire's perimeter is mostly quiet, with much of it in the west, north and southeast with crews being on "patrol" status, available to catch any heat near or outside perimeter.

The fire is most active in its northeast area, where it had exploded a couple of days ago and was aggressively burning into yesterday.

Yesterday and last night, crews "went direct" and were able to line hot areas in the southwest of the fire's expansion and around and up the slopes of Doe Mountain (see map). 

The result of this is that the firefighters appear to have gained the upper hand in the most active areas.  We'll hope.

The weather will become more favorable for crews from today on, with higher humidity levels (up to 15% - 20% tonight and perhaps as high as 60% - 70% tomorrow) and somewhat lower temperatures.

The fuel load is so dry, though, that the affects of increased humidity may not immediately affect the fire's behavior.

Spot fires will likely not be a big problem today:  of those that occur, many will be down-slope, meaning they will burn upwards towards the main fire, and breezes will likely blow from the west, meaning that any spots from the southwest portion of the recent explosion will be driven towards the fire by breeze as well as slope.

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The first map is an overview of the fire from last night's IR overflight.  I edited out the "isolated heat" hot spots to reduce clutter.  This morning's perimeter is red, yesterday's is turquoise/green, and the day before yesterday's perimeter is white.  Otherwise, the map should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second map is an enlargement of the northeast quadrant of the overview map on which I superimposed the most recent satellite hot spots (The most recent hot spots are 0-6 hours old and 6-12 hours old as of about 1:00AM today.). I used the same perimeter colors as above, and the yellow line approximates the newly-constructed control line.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 13

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park grew from yesterday morning's total of about 420,850 acres to today's morning total of about 426,530 acres (+ about 5,700).  It remains 34% contained.

Today, the resources are approximately what they've been for the past few days, and there has been little or no change in the number of destroyed, damaged and undamaged structures previously reported.

The fire was quite active yesterday and significant activity is expected again today with medium distance spotting owing to very dry weather, very dry fuel loads and very low humidity with little recovery from the low humidity expected tonight.

The terrain will favor uphill runs.

In the last operational period, Park's growth was in it's northeast quadrant (the Mill Creek area) along the east flank of Turner Mountain towards Mineral. (See maps below.)

To me, it looks like the plan might be to drive the fire towards the 2021 scar of the Dixie Fire, just to the east of Park, where there's precious little fuel.

Yesterday evening, I monitored air activity over the fire for about 5 minutes.  

During that time I was able to identify no fewer than 8 helos, several smaller fixed wing aircraft (they looked to me to be observation aircraft) and at least 1 Very Large Air Tanker and 1 Large Air Tanker (from New South Wales, Australia), all operating to south and/or the east of Mineral.

The weather conditions should improve a bit in the coming days, but as far as I can tell, the change won't be one of dramatic improvement.

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The first image is an overview of last night's IR overflight.  I've omitted the "isolated heat" dots to reduce clutter.  The white line is yesterday's perimeter.  The rest should be self explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second image is an enlargement of the area showing the fire's growth over the last operational period.  The white line is yesterday's perimeter.  Otherwise, the image should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 12

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park fire has reportedly grown to 420,847 acres (+ about 6,800 acres from yesterday's estimate of 414,042 acres. The fire is listed as 34% contained.

Today, there are 6,593 personnel (including 128 crews and 128 "other assigned" individuals), 40 helos, 522 engines, 191 dozers, 153 water tenders and an unknown number of fixed wing aircraft, including firefighting air tankers. At least one of these is a Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT, DC-10).

Park fire's growth had been mainly up the Mill Creek drainage, but when the fire exploded about 24 - 36 hours ago, it escaped over drainage's rims and past the containment lines, throwing many spot fires ahead of it.

Over the last 24 hours, firefighters have had to retreat from their attacks at least once, as they had to the day before.

In response to the fire's aggressive behavior, crews have conducted extensive burning operations, which are difficult to control:  large operations risk crews losing control of their own creation and can add to the fire's potential destructiveness instead of checking it.  (see map)

Additionally, yesterday and into early evening numerous helos and at least one VLAT attacked the perimeter of the fire nearest to Mineral.

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The first image is an IR overview of the fire produced by last night's overflight.  Once again I've removed the "isolated heat" markings to reduce clutter.  The white squiggly line at the northeast is yestereday's IR perimeter.  This should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second image is an enlargement of the northeast perimeter.  I've labeled key elements of it, and the label "Burn Operation" refers to the entire arch at the tip of the arrow.  Otherwise, it should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 11

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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As of about 7:30 this morning, the Park Fire has reportedly burned 414,042 acres (+ roughly 12,300 acres) from the roughly 401,740 acres reported yesterday.

Yes, growth of about 12,300 acres.  In short, the fire exploded.

Resources assigned include 6,588 personnel (including 134 crews and 128 "other personnel"), who are supported by 40 helos, 525 engines, 192 dozers, 153 water tenders and "numerous fixed wing" firefighting air tankers.

There has been no change in the assessment of destroyed or damaged structures.

So here's how things appear to have unfolded, at least to my amature's mind.

From roughly noon yesterday until about 3:30 PM, the fire grew about 1,500 acres north, out of the Mill Creek drainage with spotting northwards across dozer lines.

The run was driven by mild but steady westerly winds, topography, very low humidity and receptive fuels.

The isolated spot fires consolidated and the fire spread quickly northwards. The firefighters evacuated the north rim of Mill Creek about 3:30 PM and drove north to HW 36 in the town of Mineral to regroup.

The north run has reached the south flank of Turner Mountain and is evidently making a run up the mountain.

The fire's explosion happened so quickly that one firefighter was burned and flight-evacuated out, and several engines were trapped.  Fingers crossed and prayers for the injured firefighter.

The fire's growth continued up and out of the Mill Creek drainage.

In about 2 - 3 hours (roughly 5:30 PM - 7:30 PM), the two fingers of the fire (north and south upslopes) joined in the drainage, the fire breached additional control lines and grew about another 2,700 acres, where, on the south, it established itself on the Mill Creek plateau.

The maps, created from data obtained shortly after midnight, tell some of the story.  More has undoubtedly happened since then.
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The first map is of last night's IR overflight.  I've omitted the "isolated heat" spots from the image.  Notice the area of "intense heat."  Click to enlarge.

The second map is of last night's perimeter with the latest satellite heat superimposed on it.  Click to enlarge.

The final map is an enlargement of the Mill Creek drainage and surrounding area.  The yellow perimeter line (yellow arrow, bottom left quadrant) is yesterday's perimeter.  The white line approximates the course of Mill Creek and the two blue lines approximate the drainage's rim, where some of the now-breached control lines are. Click to enlarge.

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