JoCo Forest Fire Watch

Cougar Point, OR - 8

This will be my final post on Cougar Point unless things take a dramatic turn for the worse.  I expect an increase in fire activity today and tomorrow as fuels dry out, but if it rains over the weekend that will put a real damper (pun intended) on the fire's ability to resurrect itself.  

These past few days of calm have allowed successful burnouts, hose-lays, cold-trailing, air operations and dozer cuts. 

I short, perimeter hot spots have been attacked and the perimeter is becoming more and more lined with firefighting assets.  That's a very favorable development for managing any hotspots that occur.

Lake County's Cougar Point fire increased by about 600 acres yesterday to roughly 87,100 acres and remains 6% contained.  I believe most of that growth was internal growth, since the perimeter is the same as yesterday's.

There are currently 858 personnel assigned to the fire, including 21 crews.  The ground-pounders are being supported by 7 helos and 48 engines.

From NWCC's evening report:

Today’s planned tactical burnout on the southwest side of the Cougar Peak Fire was successful. The Prineville Hotshot crew incrementally burned out approximately 3 miles of line, starting south of Cox Flat and working north. The intent of the burnout was to reduce fuels between the active fire’s edge and the line. These actions have helped secure the southwest section of the fire. Throughout the day and tonight, resources will continue to actively mop-up and patrol the burnout area. [My emphasis - Ed]

Air resources were available all day to support firefighters on the ground. Helicopters stayed busy with bucket
drops, helping ground resources extinguish flare ups, hotspots and spots along the fire edge. As well as
supporting burnout operations with pretreating the opposite side of the line of the burning with water drops. Burns
and Lakeview helitack plus one additional helicopter were lent to a new start, the Bear Flat Fire near Klamath
Falls, for the afternoon. Smoke from this new fire is visible to the west of Lakeview.

The heavy equipment group continued to engage in constructing contingency lines on the western side of the
fire. Resources mopped up and patrolled the lines that were burned out yesterday around Round Mountain.
Oregon State Fire Marshal (OSFM) task forces completed their last operational period on the fire helping with
mop-up on the north and south sides of the fire. Cattle continue to be found in the fire area and reported to
livestock owners.

The eastern edge of the fire remains a priority for securing. Crews continued to install hose lays and mopping up
hotspots. Lots of work remains in this area with snags being cut for the safety of crews working along the fire’s
edge. Helicopter water bucket drops assisted crews throughout the day with controlling flare ups, hotspots and
spots outside the fire line. The southeast corner of the fire is mopped up 100-150 feet. Firefighters did find spots
close to the fire line throughout the afternoon as downslope winds pushed embers over the line.

The IR overflight shows a reduction of scattered heat, which yesterday was used as a proxy for numerous and unresolvable "isolated heat" hot-spots.  So today's map shows individual "isolated heat" hotspots, or more to the point, cool areas between them.

The satellite image shows hotspots on the west and southwest of the perimeter, most of which are probably due to the burnouts. Click to enlarge.

Cougar Point, OR - 7

This will be my final post on Cougar Point unless things take a dramatic turn for the worse.  

I expect an increase in fire activity today and tomorrow as fuels dry out, but if it rains over the weekend that will put a real damper (pun intended) on the fire's ability to resurrect itself.  

Plus, these past few days of calm have allowed successful burnouts, hose-lays, cold-trailing, air operations and dozer cuts. 

I short, perimeter hot spots have been attacked and the perimeter is becoming more and more lined with firefighting assets.

Lake County's Cougar Point fire increased by about 600 acres yesterday to roughly 87,100 acres and remains 6% contained.  I believe most of that growth was internal growth, since the perimeter is the same as yesterday's.

There are currently 858 personnel assigned to the fire, including 21 crews.  The ground-pounders are being supported by 7 helos and 48 engines.

From NWCC's evening report:

Today’s planned tactical burnout on the southwest side of the Cougar Peak Fire was successful. The Prineville
Hotshot crew incrementally burned out approximately 3 miles of line, starting south of Cox Flat and working north. The intent of the burnout was to reduce fuels between the active fire’s edge and the line. These actions have helped secure the southwest section of the fire. Throughout the day and tonight, resources will continue to actively mop-up and patrol the burnout area. [My emphasis - Ed]

Air resources were available all day to support firefighters on the ground. Helicopters stayed busy with bucket
drops, helping ground resources extinguish flare ups, hotspots and spots along the fire edge. As well as
supporting burnout operations with pretreating the opposite side of the line of the burning with water drops. Burns
and Lakeview helitack plus one additional helicopter were lent to a new start, the Bear Flat Fire near Klamath
Falls, for the afternoon. Smoke from this new fire is visible to the west of Lakeview.

The heavy equipment group continued to engage in constructing contingency lines on the western side of the
fire. Resources mopped up and patrolled the lines that were burned out yesterday around Round Mountain.
Oregon State Fire Marshal (OSFM) task forces completed their last operational period on the fire helping with
mop-up on the north and south sides of the fire. Cattle continue to be found in the fire area and reported to
livestock owners.

The eastern edge of the fire remains a priority for securing. Crews continued to install hose lays and mopping up
hotspots. Lots of work remains in this area with snags being cut for the safety of crews working along the fire’s
edge. Helicopter water bucket drops assisted crews throughout the day with controlling flare ups, hotspots and
spots outside the fire line. The southeast corner of the fire is mopped up 100-150 feet. Firefighters did find spots
close to the fire line throughout the afternoon as downslope winds pushed embers over the line.

The IR overflight shows a reduction of scattered heat, which yesterday was used as a proxy for numerous and unresolvable "isolated heat" hot-spots.  So today's map shows individual "isolated heat" hotspots, or, better, cool areas between them. Click to enlarge.

The satellite map follows.  Most of the hot spots on the southwest and west of the perimeter probably reflect the burnout operations.  Click to enlarge.

Cougar Point, OR - 6

Like the day before and as anticipated, yesterday Lake County's Cougar Fire grew but little (162 acres via IR overflight), for a total acreage of 86,170 acres.

It is 6% contained.

There are 787  personnel assigned to the fire including 20 hand crews consisting of:  1 - type 1 hand crew;   2 - type 2 IA hand crews;   14 - type 2 hand crews; and  3 - camp crews.  The crews are assisted by 6 helos, 65 engines, 14 dozers, 25 water tenders, and 2 - masticators.

From InciWeb:

The heel of the fire (south flank) has not changed over the past two days. Cooler weather, light winds and better visibility allowed resources to make substantial progress yesterday to lay hose and start mop up near roads, handlines and dozer lines.

The west side of the fire is in difficult terrain with limited access; natural hazards such as drought weakened trees and powder dry soil. Crews are evaluating possible opportunities in this area to tie into road systems and establish indirect containment lines. When completed, strategic firing operations will be conducted.

On the head of the fire (north flank) the majority of sagebrush and shrubs in this area were consumed during the intense wind event. Currently, very little heat remains. Firefighters are cold-trailing (feeling with the hand for heat) to reduce the impacts to remaining vegetation on these key grazing lands and further the containment on this portion of the fire.

On the eastern flank, line has been constructed.  Short pieces of line remain to be built today to tie together the entire flank.

The fire is expected to be more or less quiet for at least the next 24- 48 hours with minimal burning.  Thereafter, as fuels dry, burning is expected to be of moderate intensity.  Come 72 hours, further drying and increased winds are expected to boost the fire's intensity and it will have the potential to spread in all directions with blowing embers causing spot fires.

Last night's IR overflight show no areas of Intense Heat.  That will likely change in a few days as fuels dry and gusty winds hit the area.  Notice that the northern section of the fire is cool.  Legend at the top left.  Click to enlarge.

The satellite view is equally and mercifully unimpressive.

Cougar Peak, OR - 5

Owing to recent rain, Lake County's Cougar Peak Fire grew a mere 206 acres to a total of 86,170 (per last night's IR overflight).  

Staffing has increased to 793 personnel, including 17 crews and they are supported by 6 helos and 65 engines.

Here's the excellent summary from InciWeb last night:

Yesterday, the Oregon State Fire Marshal’s taskforces revisited structures that were impacted by fire and mopped up 100 feet out from each structure. This further secures structures from a potential rekindle that could threaten the residence in the future. Crews also worked on Cox Butte and Round Mountain to protect communications infrastructure that is still near the fire perimeter.

Resources made substantial progress using roads, handline and dozer lines to create lines around the fire. Crews and engines continue to lay hose and mop up along the southern and eastern edges of the fire. On the western side of the fire, containment strategies of indirect line options continue to be evaluated.

In the following days strategic firing operations will be conducted in areas where containment line has been constructed and tied to road systems. Fire growth was minimal today. Warmer temperatures are beginning to dry out fuels and internal pockets of areas that had not originally burned, are becoming more active.

Aviation assets were available today after the smoke cleared from the fire area and were able to recon the fire area for fire managers. Fire officials and crews have also been working with the local rangeland managers to locate missing cattle and identify livestock that has perished as a result of the fire.

One firefighter was transported by helicopter off the fire today to Klamath Falls Hospital for a non-fire related illness. Paramedics and EMT’s on the fire responded to assist quickly and effectively transported the individual to a higher level of care.

Tonight, resources will remain on the fire with the priority of patrolling and mopping up the fire impacted properties. OSFM task forces will be assessing structures to the west of the fire and reassessing structures around the active fire area. With minimal winds predicted tonight, smoke is expected to settle into the valley floors overnight and into the morning.

A map of Cougar Point follows.  Note that structures are represented as gray dots.  Consult the legend at the bottom of the map for details.  Click to enlarge.

The satellite map gives us the location of the few hotspots.  Click to enlarge.

Cougar Peak, OR - 4

Today is 9/11 — Let's not forget those who have served us well at great cost to themselves and their loved ones, sometimes even giving their lives.  They deserve our utmost respect and we honor them. 

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Wednesday night and Thursday, the fire was so aggressive that about all firefighters could do was to prioritize structure protection and get people out of harms way.  The fire's aggressiveness and the lack of resources restricted their ability to fight the fire.

There was also an influx of resources which had to be moved to the north of the fire where growth was the greatest.  Staffing has almost doubled, from 361 personnel day before yesterday to 694 today, with 50 engines now on site.  But deploying takes time.

By yesterday weather/fire conditions had improved and with more resources available crews had a good day:  due to a rainfall of ¼ inch in the morning, the fire grew only about 2,500 acres and has burned a total acreage of roughly 86,000 acres (by IR overflight).  Crews also started lines in the south, south east and south west.

The firefighters will enjoy favorable conditions of higher humidity and cooler temperatures for about the next 24 hours.

 They will be cold trailing and looking for areas to attack the fire along its edge, especially in the north and on the eastern and western edges.  

But the rain will not make up for 2 years of drought and the favorable conditions are expected to be only temporary and the very large evacuation areas are a precaution against the fire exploding again.

Evacuation map: click to enlarge.

According to InciWeb:

12 hours: Minimal fire behavior expected for this period. New starts from the multitude of strikes are expected. Fire behavior consisting primarily of creeping surface fire, single tree torching under protected canopy, and continued consumption of heavy fuels.

24 hours: Minimal fire behavior expected for this period. New starts from the multitude of strikes are expected. Fire behavior consisting primarily of creeping surface fire, single tree torching under protected canopy, and continued consumption of heavy fuels.

48 hours: Typical NW flow returns to the fire area. Low to moderate spread potential in light fuels and brush, continued consumption of 100 and 1000 hour fuels, and additional drying out of smaller diameter fuels in the timber fuel types.

Let's hope the crews get a lot done.

The satellite map follows.  Click to enlarge.

 

Cougar Peak, OR - 3

Lake County's Cougar Peak fire has exploded yet again:  it had grown from roughly 20,000 acres yesterday morning to about 34,000 acres last evening.  

It is now estimated to be about 83,339 acres (per IR overflight) and satellite estimations.  

It is "0" percent contained and its cause is "undetermined." (Until a plausible alternative cause is offered, I'm putting my money on it having being ignited by a dormant hotspot on the north perimeter of the Patton Meadow fire weeks after that fire was thought to have been contained.)

Eight residences are threatened. 

The Type 2 team has assumed command and resources are arriving as fast as possible.  The fire is currently staffed by 361 personnel (including 6 crews) who are supported by 3 helos and 36 engines.  Dozers are on-site, but I don't know how many.

Last night, the fire "made a major push" to the Northeast and Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3 evacuation notices have been issued to areas in the fire's path.

Also last night, firefighters cut dozer lines to the south flank of the fire and dozer cuts on the northwest flank held.

Today, firefighters will be scouting for locations where fire primary and alternative lines can be established.

The Conflagration Act has been invoked by Governor Brown which allows multi-agency structure protection resources to be mobilized from throughout the state to protect homes, businesses and critical infrastructure threatened by the Cougar Peak Fire.

From NWCC's morning report:

Today, firefighters will scout opportunities on the north and northwest flank for road prepping locations to be used as containment line and strengthening and securing established line. The structural protection group will be working on the west, southwest, and near the Open A Ranch area to identify and assess structure protection opportunities.

Projections per InciWeb for the next 12 - 24 hours are:

12 hours: Current fire behavior and record low dry fuels are making this Incident extremely resistant to control tactics and processes. The northeast progression is expected to continue through the evening, pushed by a strong southwesterly flow. Thunderstorm outflow winds have the potential to move the fire rapidly in several directions.  (My emphasis - Ed)

24 hours: Easterly movement of the fire is likely today. The embedded shortwave within the trough passage brings an increased probability of precipitation Friday morning. The resulting fire behavior for this period will depend on the amount and duration of any precipitation.

Last night's overflight narrative was brief:  

Due to weather we were unable to capture a portion of east side of fire.

The IR overflight's image appears below.  I've indicated the interface of the perimeter's of Patton Meadow fire and Cougar Peak with a white line.  I've also included Bootleg's footprint.  Note legend in the top left of the image. Click to enlarge.

 

Cougar Peak, OR - 2

Cougar Creek Fire in Lake County has exploded from an estimated 1,300 acres yesterday to something greater than 20,000 acres this morning.   

A Type 2 team arrived and was in-briefed yesterday afternoon/evening and began operations @ 6:30AM today.  The Type 4 team, the initial attack team, will be relieved today.

Air attacks will continue today, smoke permitting.  I have no further information about resources other than they will continue to arrive today and tomorrow and will be employed as they can be.  

Firefighters face extreme conditions, including record-breaking dry fuels for timber, dry climate brush, and logging slash, all of which are especially combustable.  The fire is torching, running and long-range spotting.

This afternoon promises strong, gusty dry winds and the possibility tonight of thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms may bring dry lightning strikes.  

Evacuation orders are in effect as follows:

Level 3 Evacuation Notice (GO NOW – Residents should leave IMMEDIATELY.)

•  Lower Cottonwood Road north to Forest Road 3870-041.

Level 1 (GET READY – Residents should make preparations for potential evacuation.)

• Forest Road 28, from the Forest Boundary northwest to Cox Flat.

There was no IR overflight last night.  The satellite pictures provide a good indication both of the  fire's direction of travel (to the NE) but also its extent.  In this image, I've included Bootleg and Patton Meadow footprints.  Click to enlarge.

The next image is a combination of the old Patton Meadow perimeter grafted onto the latest VIIRS satellite images and projected onto Google Earth.  Notice the slight overlap between the south portion of the VIIRS hot spots and the northern perimeter of Patton Meadow.  Click to enlarge.

Cougar Peak, OR - 1

Yesterday, a new fire emerged in Lake County 15 miles NW of Lakeview.  The fire was discovered about 1:45PM and has burned an estimated 1,300 acres.  It is growing rapidly in mixed conifer and brush towards the NE.

There were multiple air and ground wildland firefighting resources fighting the fire as of Tuesday evening; numerous other resources will be mobilizing and engaging on Wednesday. Air resources include three heavy air tankers and three helicopters.  

Currently, the fire is staffed by 67 personnel of a Type 4 team.  They are scheduled for relief later today by a Type 2 team.

(There are 5 levels of firefighting teams:  Type 5 fights the simplest fires, Type 1 fights the most complex.) 

Cougar Peak appears to be burning right up against the northern edge of the Patton Meadow Fire (the larger and more aggressive fire of the two Fox Complex fires).

Patton Meadow burned just to the west of Lakeview and was 90% contained and showed no growth on 27 Aug.  

A final report was issued on the 27th and a local Type 4 team replaced the Type 2 team.

While the cause of Cougar Point officially remains unknown, the proximity of it to Patton Meadow suggests to me Cougar Peak might have been caused by residual heat of Patton Meadow — in which case it might actually be a continuation of Patton Meadow (albeit with it's own designation).

There's no IR overflight of the Cougar Peak fire yet, but I've got the most recent MODIS (red) and VIIRS (orange) satellite image.  I've included the footprints of both Bootleg and Patton Meadow on the map.  Click to enlarge.

The following is an enlarged view of the heat perimeter of the last IR overflight from the Patton Meadow Fire (27 Aug 21) together with the this morning's VIIRS satellite image.  Notice the interface between the two.  Click to enlarge.