JoCo Forest Fire Watch

Flat Fire, OR - 19

In the last two days, the Flat Fire has grown to a total of about 27,575 acres (+ about 2,005 acres, so about 1,000 acres per day).

Almost all the increase occurred due to low-intensity burnouts in the Southwest quadrant of the fire, in the "firebox." The fire is listed at 14% contained, but that's a sizable underestimate.  (On the West, the containment line now reaches to the "firebox.")

All remaining evacuation levels have been reduced to Level 1.

Resources currently available include:  Total personnel: 1,547.   Crews: 35.   Helos: 9.   Engines: 52.   Dozers: 2.   Water Tenders: 25.   Masticators: 4.

Crews continued creating contingency lines well away from the fire against the possibility that the fire might jump it's current control lines and to create access roads/control lines to be used against future fires.

Yesterday, both the the Southeast and Northeast perimeters showed little heat, and any heat identified there or anywhere else in the fire was targeted by helo bucket drops.  The contingency road-based line in the Northeast is also being maintained.  (See map)

As the summer season wears on fie danger will increase.  The humidity will decrease, the fuels will dry out, and we'll experience strong winds (from any direction).  Together these conditions will pose a threat of a breakout.

So as a precautionary measure crews continued to increase the strength and depth of all control lines (by mopping up hotspots, initiating local burnouts, etc.).  

Most of the crews' attention has been focussed on the Southwest quadrant.  As anticipated, crews used controlled burnouts to create a line between Drop Points 116 and 120 on the southern perimeter. (See map)

Crews within the fire box and drones flying overhead initiated low-intensity burnouts of the area inside the firebox at the Southwest perimeter.  Low-intensity fires are intended to reduce the amount of tinder on the ground (eliminate the "flash factor"). (See map)

The IR interpreter reports:

I began my interpretation using the most current EventPoly from NIFS dated 7/29/23 at 2039 with an acreage of 25,572. Interpreted acres equaled 27,577 for 2,005 acres of growth since last interpretation.

Growth is focused within the southwest quadrant of the fire where burnout operations are taking place. Pockets of scattered heat are present across the fire area with isolated heat dominating the interior.

Marine influence was present, resulting in a haze across parts of the imagery.

The IR map follows. It's self-explanatory. Click to enlarge.

 

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Bedrock, OR - 9

Over the last two days, Bedrock has grown to 10,659 acres (+ about 1,100, or about 550 acres per day), with most of the growth in the Hehe Drainage in the Northeast and North in the area of Alder Creek Drainage.

It is about 3% contained, and the fire is expected to spread by less than 1,000 acres per day for the next few days.

Current resources include: Total Personnel: 723. Crews: 13. Helos: 9. Engines: 40.

There is no change in the number of structures threatened, and I've seen no reports of injuries or deaths.

Crews have completed burnout operations in the Southwest "point" of the fire and are continuing to work on fuel abatement in the Southwest. (See IR map and Operations map.)

On the southwest edge of the fire, line has been completed from Big Fall Creek Road south for more than three miles. Hand crews and heavy equipment continue to work on lines along the fire perimeter further to the southeast. (See Operations map)

For many folks living in the area, smoke will be a problem for today, with some areas being subjected to "unhealthy" amounts.

IR interpreter reports:

Started interpretation tonight using the NIFS perimeter.

The growth occurred in the Hehe creek Drainage to the NE as well as in Alder Creek. The burnout operations continue to fill in areas on the Far SW corner of the fire. The far SE finger of the fire along Fall creek did not show as much heat or intensity tonight.

The IR map follows.  It is self-explanatory. Click to enlarge.

A section of the Operations map, with legend, follows.  The legend is a good one.  Click to enlarge.

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Bedrock, OR - 8

There was no IR overflight last night owing to a requirement that flight crews take a day of rest, so I've created a hybrid map of yesterday's IR perimeter with the latest satellite hotspots placed on it.

Based on yesterday's acreage of 9,568 acres, I guess the fire grew about 700 acres, mainly on the North near the Alder Creek drainage and perimeter Northeast of Hehe Drainage.  If my estimate is close, today's total acreage will approach and may exceed 10,000 acres.  (See heat map for satellite hot spots.

Bedrock is still about 3% contained, and while the number of structures threatened has not changed, the Willamette National Forest expanded its Forest Closure Order.

Current resources include: Total Personnel: 726. Crews: 13. Helo: 9. Engines: 40.

From this morning's morning report (lightly edited, see Operations map for details).

Crews are making progress constructing fire lines in critical areas. On the southwest edge of the fire, line has been completed from Big Fall Creek Road south for more than three miles. Hand crews and heavy equipment continue to work on fire lines along the fire perimeter further to the southeast.

To the west of the fire, north of Big Fall Creek Road, large sections of the 1817 road system have been cleared and prepared for use as indirect fire lines. Fuels are being reduced through the use of masticators and chippers, and by removal of logs along roads.

North of the fire, along the ridgeline from Little Cowhorn Mountain to Symbol Rock, a fire line is being established to stop the spread of the fire.   (See Operations map for details - ED)

The weather is expected not to change appreciatively over the next few days.

The heat map is a hybrid of yesterday's IR perimeter with the latest satellite hotspots appended to it and approximations of the course of drainages.  Click to enlarge. 

This section of the operations map, with the legend, should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Flat Fire, OR - 18

There was no IR overflight last night due go a requirement that crews must take time off.  So I can only estimate the fire's size and the amount of growth in the past 24 hours based on yesterdays acreage (25,572) and recent burnouts (+600?   Total  31,500??).  See map. 

Resources currently include:  Total Personnel:  1,850.   Crews: 46.   Helos: 12.   Engines: 52.  

There has been no change in the number of structures threatened, and structure protection crews are expanding their scouting outward to identify and protect structures not previously attended to (against worst possible occurrence).

Almost all of Flat's growth was from controlled burns at the Southwest.  (See map.)

Using high-tech IR detectors (Firewatch?),  crews identified and extinguished a few small hot spots on the Northeast perimeter.  I've included on the map the roadway previously prepared to anchor (the now paused) burnouts.  (See map.)

In the Southwest, crews are working on control line tying Drop Point 116 to Drop Point 120, deepening the pereimeter of the fire box, and conducting burnout operations by drone.

Heat map, using yesterday's perimeter and the latest satellite hotspots.  1:  Area that was scheduled to be burned out using a road system approximated by the white line.  2. Planned burnout to green line, to tie DP 116 and DP 120 together, building off a dozer line.  3.  Completed burnout.  4.  Burnouts conducted inside burnbox.  5.  Last segment of burnout to complete burnbox.  Click to enlarge.

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Flat Fire, OR - 17

The Flat Fire has grown to 25,572 Acres (+621).  Most of that (minimal) growth occurred in the Southwest and includes burnouts.

Resources include:  Total Personnel: 1,941.   Crews: 50.   Helicopter: 12.   Engines: 53.  One High-tech IR sensor (see below).

I know of no injuries or deaths, and the number of threatened structures remains unchanged.

The entire Northern perimeter and some of the Northwestern perimeter is considered "contained" and the managers are very confident that they are secure. While the fire is listed at 14% contained, actual containment is certainly greater (reporting lags behind completion).  

Structure protection crews have been very successful, so much so that some personnel are being released.

To the perimeter's Northeast and West, crews are making good progress constructing external control lines (lines that are well-distant from the fire's perimeter).  The reason for these lines is there's "lots of summer to go and we want to be prepared for anything."

In the Southwest, the burnout we've followed for a few days was completed and crews will now be incresasing the depth of the line by removing internal fuel loads. (The burnout may have been completed last night, after the IR overflight.  I've indicated my best guess on the IR map.)

There's a Spike Camp located on the Southern perimeter where a crew is camping and monitoring a pocket of unburned area. (See map)

The fire managers have been considering how best to handle the long Southern perimeter. They used overflights to monitor it and they have plans for several contingencies, including transporting crews by air to sites, if needed.  At present, there is no need for aggressive action there.

As it turns out, managers received a very important piece of equipment from California yesterday.

Called Firewatch, it is an extremely sensitive IR detector, able to identify very small areas of heat during the daytime (sounds to me like it's a game-changer).  Now, planners can obtain very detailed information about hidden heat that was not possible before, or where there is no heat where it might have been expected.

What this means is that they can not only attack smaller heat spots sooner, but the "worst case scenario" window has shifted and they will be able pause actions they would have were about to take:  needless burnouts can be avoided.

For example, Flightwatch has caused the managers to rethink their strategy at the Northeast section of the perimeter, around which they prepared roads for a burnout (to begin in a day or two).  Now, with Flightwatch, they've decided the danger posed by that section of perimeter is less than they expected, so they are going to pause their Northeast burnout operations unless and until they need to.

The IR interpreter reports:

I started a perimeter in nifs pulled around 2300 pdt. The incident modified the peirimeter some. Growth above was compared to prior IR

Most of the growth was spread out in the SW within the burnouts box . There was also some growth just SW of Gray still.  Growth was minimal other than that.  There was numerous patches of intense heat spread around those areas also.  There is still a lot of scattered and isolated heat scattered throughout the perimeter converting to smaller patches and more isolated heat sources.  There are also some isolated heat sources outside the perimeter, scattered mostly along the south. I had to map scattered and isolated heat at a much coarser scale due to time constraints.

The IR map follows.  I've removed the dots of "Isolated Heat" because they obscure practically every other feature of the map. The "Roads Prepared for Burnout" will remain an option to be used if the burnouts are needed.  In the Southwest, the label "Possible Burnout" is where a burnout would have been, if accomplished after the IR flight.  It's possible that area was not burned, so perhaps "completed burnout" means "finished burnout" which could include a gap.  Click to enlarge.

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Bedrock, OR - 7

The Bedrock fire has now consumed 9,568 acres (+516 acres).  Most of that growth was to the Northeast with some to the North, out of Hehe drainage.  A burnout in the Southwest also contributed to the increased acreage

The modest growth of ~500 acres is partly due to the fire's growing into the scar of a previous fire, where fuel is less abundant.  Today's growth is expected to be about the same as yesterday's.

Resources include: Total Personnel: 632. Crews: 11. Helos: 7. Engines: 29. This represents an increase in resources, both human and equipment, over what I last reported as earlier requests for personnel and equipment (mainly hand crews and engines) are arriving and are being deployed mostly to the east end of the fire.

The crews are scouting for locations that are both safe and where strong control lines can be constructed.  This often means the top of ridges, which tend to be more easily accessed for crews and heavy equipment than hill sides.  

The ridge tops generally offer better chances of halting a fire's spread than control lines cut on a hillside:  there is generally less vegetation on a ridgeline than a slope, and there is a greater chance of a fire jumping a control line on a steep hillside than one on a ridge.

For crews, working on ridges is generally safer than working on hillsides where falling rocks and trees can be very dangerous hazards.  Also, if fire jumps a line on a steep hillside, there is a greater chance of crews being trapped by fire than if they are on ridgeline.

IR interpreter reports:

Got data late tonight. But we did get a later flight and no false heat from hot rocks. Unfortunately there were some clouds that obscured part of the far NE end of the fire. All growth continues in the same areas NE and N. the Burnout in the Far SW end of the fire look to have filled in much of the roadwork there.

The IR map follows.  It's self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Flat Fire, OR - 16

Flat Fire has grown to 24,951 acres (+622) and is 14% contained.  This modest growth is mainly on the Southwest, within the burnout box where planned burnouts account for much of the increased acreage. 

In short, currently the fire is not aggressive and this is in part due to relatively mild weather and fuel that retains some moisture.

Thankfully, I've heard nothing about injuries or deaths (except poison oak, a bane on the crews).  The threat to structures (40 primary residence and 12 commercial/residential) has not changed.

Current resources include:  Total Personnel: 1,643.  Crews: 42.  Helos: 12.  Engines: 51.  Some number of fixed wing scooper tankers are also being used.

The already-strong northern perimeter is being patrolled, mopped up and strengthened still more, and at the Northeast corner of the fire preparations are well under way to strengthen road lines to allow for burnouts.   The burnouts should begin in a few days. (See map)

Crews are patrolling and strengthening lines in the west, with special attention being given to completing the burnouts in the Southwest, which are progressing steadily.  

The IR interpreter's report follows:

I started a perimeter in nifs pulled around 2000 pdt. Most of the growth was spread out in the SW within the burnouts box . There was also some growth just SW of Gray butte and the spot tight at Game Lake tied in to the main perimeter. Growth was minimal other than that. There was numerous patches of intense heat spread around those areas also. There is still a lot of scattered and isolated heat scattered throughout the perimeter converting to smaller patches and more isolated heat sources. There are also some isolated heat sources outside the perimeter, scattered mostly along the south.

The IR map, from which I've removed dozens of "Isolated Heat Spots" for clarity of illustration, follows.  Arrow 1 = improvement of roads so crews can begin burnouts. Arrow 2 = IR burnspot tied into perimeter.  the 2 Arrows labeled "3" indicate additional burnouts.  Arrow 4 = road serving as barrier for future burnouts. Click to enlarge.

This map is of the Northeast Corner of the fire.  The legend is quite good.  Click to enlarge.

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Bedrock, OR - 6

Bedrock has grown to 9,052 acres (+800) as of about 9:00PM last night (per IR overflight) and the fire is 0% contained.  The fire threatens 12 single residences and 10 minor structures, and (thankfully) I've found no information announcing human injury or death.

Resources: Total Personnel: 518. Crews: 10. Helos: 6. Engines: 25. Masticators: present but number not reported. Fixed wing scooper-tankers (per Flightradar24): at least 2 .

Bedrock is advancing consistent with yesterday's expectations, mainly to the Northeast (where it crested Hehe Drainage and spilled into Tiller Drainage) and in the Southwest (along Andy Creek).

As a reminder, the fire is being driven by terrain (up very steep slopes) fueled by extremely dry ground debris that is easily ignited, that burn very hot (so require more water to extinguish) and which easily shed embers that can start spot fires up to a mile away. Afternoon wind exacerbate fire growth, blowing the fire up drainages and encouraging crowning.

The conditions contributing to this fire's behavior are not expected to change in the near future, so crews are working to build indirect lines on the West and North flanks, reopen historic fire lines, helispots and staging areas and extinguish spot fires. Control line preparation continues on the 1817 and 1821 roads.

The IR interpreter reports.

Got data early tonight. There were a bit of hot rocks but I was able to catch them and not mark as heat. Again the growth is on the same locations NE into the Tiller Creek draining as well as NW in the Alder Creek Drainage. Burnout operations continue in the SW corner. The whole interior was covered in scattered heat.

I cropped a portion of this morning's briefing map and labeled the various drainages that are currently of importance.  The legend is useful.  Click to enlarge

Last night's IR map is self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Bedrock, OR - 5

During the last IR reporting period, Bedrock grew to 8,252 acres (+1,096 acres) with most of the growth to the North and Northeast and to the Southwest along Andy Creek. The fire is "0%" contained.  

I know of no injuries or deaths.  But there are 12 single residences and 10 other structures threatened.   I don't believe there are any evacuation notices yet, but a significant area of the Willamette National Forest surrounding the fire has been closed.

Resources include: Total Personnel: 471. Crews: 9. Helos: 7. Engines: 23. 

The IR interpreter's report follows:

There were internet issues with the aircraft and we did not get imagery until 2400 mdt. I ran through and updated the perimeter and any heat outside of the perimeter and posted those @ 0100 mdt.

I interpreted other fires and then came back and finished the interior heat. That was synced up to NIFS in step 2 @ 0300.

The fire continues to gain in the NE direction. As well as to the SW and a little to the east along Fall creek. The whole interior showed more heat but that was probably due to how early it was flown.

With that said that was an area outside the SW corner of the fire coded as potential heat sources as I think the gravel pit is putting off heat and not from fire. Still a check is warranted.

The fire's growth is "active" with spotting, short crown runs and uphill runs.  While relatively quiet yesterday morning, as the inversion lifted in the afternoon, it grew a lot in the Hehe drainage to the north and to the Southwest along Andy Creek. (See map.)

There's been no rain since mid-May and the very hot temperatures have "baked" both dry fuels and green vegetation such that they are drier than usual, more like late August than late July.  The result is that otherwise marginal green vegetation has become dry fuel, and dried fuel has become even more flammable.

 Fuel as dry as Bedrock's is much more easily ignited and burns very hot, which means it requires more water to extinguish.  Embers are more easily spread by wind . . . to more unusually-dry fuel. So spot fires may appear up to 1 mile from the fire's perimeter.

Similar weather and fire behavior is likely to occur today and tomorrow.

The map is self-explanatory. Click to enlarge.

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Flat Fire, OR - 15

(I think the 2 maps below are especially useful for this post.)

Last night's IR overflight indicated that Flat Fire had grown to 24,329 Acres (+651 Acres), with most of the growth being in the SW corner.  The fire is 10% contained.

Resources include: Personnel: 1,643. Crews: 38. Helos: 11. Engines: 51.

The fire was a little more active  along it's north perimeter last night, and crews will use road systems to conduct limited and very careful burnouts there.

Crews will conduct limited burnouts from Drop Point (DP) 45 along a road system to widen the road's containment function. This will take 4-5 days and create some smoke. (See Map 1)

Repellers were placed on the isolated spot of low-intensity fire, even though it hasn't been very active, to prevent it from spilling out to the east.   (See Map 1)

Fixed wing aircraft dropped retardant along the southern perimeter and just north of Collier Butte, and extinguished a spot fire to the west of that.  (See map 2)

Crews will continue to improve the 3680 road and create a pocket of unburned terrain by conducting limited firing operations along that road.  When safe to do so, crews will enter the unburned pocket to bring fire to the perimeter from there. (See Map 2)

IR interpreter's assement follows:

I started a perimeter in nifs pulled around 2100 pdt.

Most of the growth was spread out in the SW within the burnouts box. There was also some growth just SW of Gray butte and a well-established spot tight at Game Lake. Growth was minimal other than that. There was numerous patches of intense heat spread around those areas also. There is still a lot of scattered and isolated heat scattered throughout the perimeter converting to smaller patches and more isolated heat sources. There are also some isolated heat sources outside the perimeter, scattered mostly along the south.

Map 1.  The heavy black line identifies contained perimeter;  the cross-hatch markings identify completed dozer lines;  the yellow line which approximates the road where there will be burnouts for the next 4-5 days; Drop Point 45 (unlabeled) is north of the yellow line; and the long-existing isolated area of low-intensity fire which is being attacked by crews who repelled into the area.  Click to enlarge.

Map 2.  The latest IR.  Note the following:  Location of repellers;  Dots indicating retardent drop;  the dozer line made only after permission was requested and the request approved;  the spot fire adjacent to the dozer line;  Forest Road 3680, which is being developed as a control line, and which creates a pocket of unburned terrain (crews will enter the pocket to do burnouts to lessen the possibility of  the fire moving south).  Click to enlarge

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