JoCo Forest Fire Watch

Park Fire, CA - 5

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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By last night's unobstructed IR overflight, the fire is estimated to have burned a total of: 389,791 (+3027) acres.  

It is burning in 4 counties (Butte, Plumas, Shasta, Tehama) and is about 18% contained.

There are about 5,779 personnel (including 77 crews) assigned to the fire, plus 40 helos, 519 engines, 180 dozers, 115 water tenders and an unspecified number of fixed wing firefighting air tankers.

 

The structure assessment teams have completed about 70% of their assignment, and so far a total of 277 structures have been reported destroyed and 29 structures damaged.

 

Overall, the firefighting teams have made very good progress.  (My fingers are crossed that their success continues.)

 

Yesterday the fire was relatively quiet and the entire western perimeter is presently in good shape.

The containment line, which is mainly on the southwestern perimeter, was increased to 18%.  

 

Yesterday, too, the fire was attacked directly along some regions of its northern perimeter and burnouts were conducted along some areas of the NE side's perimeter.

 

The fire was most active on its northeastern end, where the IR interpreter detected large areas of both intense heat and scattered heat.  

 

Within the perimeter, the interpreter identified a wide scattering of numerous small fires. (See first map).

 

Today will likely be another relatively quiet day due to smoke, with light breezes from the SE.  The fire's activity is likely to increase this afternoon, and warming temperatures and decreasing humidity will favor increased fire activity over the next few days.

The first illustration is from last night's IR overflight.  The white line at the arrow's tip indicates about where the perimeter is 18% contined.  Otherwise, the illustration should be self explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

 

The second image is of last night's IR-defined perimeter with last night's satellite hot spots superimposed on it.  Again, it is self explanatory. Click to enlarge.

 

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Park Fire, CA - 4

The Park Fire is located in the center of Northern California (see bottom map).

 Park is estimated to have grown to roughly 380,600 (per IR overflight) or to 383,600 (per CalFire's own overflight) (+7,000 to 9,000 acres, respectively).  

The fire is estimated to be about 14% contained.

(This fire is truly extraordinary to the point where its creating its own weather:  thunderstorms [but no lightning so far] and fire plumes that mimic tornados.)

The perimeter of the Park Fire is 260 miles in circumference which means it has burned more than 3 times the surface area of Lake Tahoe.

There are 5,582 personnel (incl. 100 crews)  assigned to the fire, supported by 41 helos, 497 engines, 170 dozers and 115 Water tenders.

Additionally, an unknown number ("numerous") of "firefighting air tankers from throughout the State are flying fire suppression missions as conditions allow."

While the IR overflight failed to gather data from central southern area of the fire (reason unknown to me), the IR interpreter reports that the fire continues to burn very actively especially along its western and northern edges, where large areas of intense heat were detected.  

Last night's satellite images suggest the northeastern perimeter was especially active. See first map.

With the steep terrain, wind activity and many inaccessible areas, the fire is making uphill runs and spot fires continue to  occur. Critically low fuel moistures and high winds have caused difficulty in suppressing the fire spread. 

Winds will be about 5 miles per hour lighter today, still out of the southwest with gusts up to 15 miles per hour. Daytime temperatures continue to climb a couple of degrees each day. 

Fire crews are providing structure defense where needed, they are attempting to complete containment lines in some areas and gain a stronghold in the challenging topography while also engaging in mop-up where applicable.

The first map is a hybrid.  The IR overflight map didn't show much, so I used the perimeter (measured = red line, estimated = white line) and added the hot spots detected last night by satellites.  click to enlarge.

 

Offered for perspective, I'm including the location of Park Fire within California and including Grants Pass, Medford and the San Francisco/Oakland Bay area.  Click to enlarge.

 

 

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Park Fire, CA - 3

By last night's overflight, Park Fire has grown by about 8,100 acres to 368,256 total acres.  

Of these, 52,859 acres are in Butte County and 315,397 are in Tehama County.  The fire is reportedly 12% contained.

There are 4,876 Personnel (including 98 Crews) assigned to the fire, plus 33 helos, 434 engines, 166 dozers 116 water tenders plus an unknown number of fixed wing aircraft (spotters and tankers).

As of now, 4,200 structures are reported threatened, while 109 have been reported destroyed 5 have been reported damaged.  Damage assessment teams are continuing their work which is about halfway completed.

The fire was active well into last night especially on ridges and upper slopes, but then humidity increased and dense smoke accumulation combined to decrease the fire's activity.

Throughout today, the combination of low moisture, fire receptive fuels and a southwest wind will likely favor increased fire activity.

Today, fire crews will continue to re-open control lines from previous fires, establish new fire lines and continue to strengthen existing lines.

Today's first image is of last night's IR overflight.  The legend makes it self explanatory.  Click to enlarge

For the second image, I've used the IR perimeter (including the "no data available" rectangles) and superimposed last night's satellite hot spots on it.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 2

Although information is very sketchy this morning, according to CalFire the Park Fire is estimated to have grown to roughly 353,200 acres.  By last night's IR overflight estimate, that would represent an increase of about 2,250 acres.  

Last night's IR overflight did not capture the northern end of the fire (about ⅓ of the fire's total area) and the satellite images of that portion seem incomplete as well.  I suspect the reason for this is dense smoke, but that's just a guess. 

The fire is reportedly 12% contained, and threatens some 4,200 structures.  It has destroyed 66 structures and damaged 5 others. Those numbers are expected to change as the work of the damage assessment teams progresses.

There 3,927 personnel assigned to the fire (including 87 hand crews), supported by 343 engines, 103 water tenders, 16 helos and 160 dozers.  An unknown (to me) number of fixed wing attack and observation aircraft are also available.

The IR interpreter report reads (in part):

No data was received for the northern end of Park Fire.  The perimeter in that area is indicated as estimated.  Large areas of perimeter growth and intense fire were detected along both the western and eastern sides of the Park Fire.  Large areas of scattered fire were detected along the (sic) throughout the perimeter of the fire.  Several isolated fires were detected within the perimeter.

Today's weather is predicted to be hotter and with lower humidity than yesterday's. This favors the fire.

The first illustration is a hybrid of the fire's perimeter, both actual and estimated, upon which both IR hotspots and satellite hotspots are superimposed.  The garish pinkish perimeter (arrow) is estimated and is partially obscured by satellite hotspots (arrow).  The large red dots with halos (arrow) are IR detected hotspots and the yellowish fill (arrow) is IR detected areas of scattered heat.  Click to enlarge.

The second illustration is a screen capture of intense air activity over the fire's western half as of 5:20 PM yesterday.  You can see both fixed wing and helos.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 1

I've had a couple of requests to discuss California's Park Fire.  It's very large and very aggressive, so you may have heard about it.  I'll summarize what I know (or believe I know) so far.

The fire started about 3:00 PM on Wednesday just north of the city of Chico.  It was reportedly caused by the action of one Ronnie Dean Stout II, 42, who, during the heat of a late July afternoon and with a red-flag alert in effect, apparently pushed a burning car down a 60 foot embankment into a ravine.  

Mr. Stout was seen walking (apparently calmly) away from the scene and arrested soon thereafter.  For the moment Mr. Stout is charged with arson, is in jail and without bail.

The ravine provided more than enough dry grass and dry brush to explode the fire, which had grown to roughly 6,400 acres by Wednesday evening, 45,000 acres by Thursday morning and by last evening had reached roughly 240,000 acres.  

Today ~7:00 AM Park has grown to roughly 307,370 acres, and remains "0" % contained.  

The fire is generally growing to the north, fueled by very dry grass and brush, and driven by wind and the contours of the land.  As it is growing, its sending fingers to the east and west as opportunity presents.

The most recent information I've found reports 2,484 personnel (including 61 crews) have been assigned to the fire as well as 16 helos, 231 engines, 116 dozers and 58 water tenders. There are numerous firefighting air tankers from throughout the State to fly fire suppression missions as conditions allow.

There has not been an IR overflight so far, so I'm using last night's satellite image (I've slightly modified it).  I've drawn a white line approximating the fire's previous perimeter.  (The "normal" looking terrain within the fire's perimeter was burned over the last 48 hours.). The green arrow approximates the point-of-origin (the ravine where Mr. Stout's burning car began the fire).  Click to enlarge.

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Diamond Complex - 7

Unless things change this will be my final post on the Diamond Complex

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Crew restrictions (flight time limits?) prevented an IR overflight last night. So for today's map, I've superimposed last night's satellite hot spots on yesterday's IR perimeters.

The latest information I have suggests the Complex has burned about 4,150 acres, i.e. roughly what was calculated by yesterday morning's IR interpreter. That's probably an underestimate.

Fire fighting resources remain hard to come by because there being many fires nationally and in Oregon, but the Complex likely has roughly 400 personnel (including 6 crews), 3 helos, 24 engines and unspecified numbers of dozers and tenders.

As of now, the main priorities appear to be the Trail, Lemolo and Pine Bench fires, all of which are closer to infrastructure than the others.

Trail seems to have cooled off a bit:  I didn't see any satellite hot spots in the fire's footprint either from yesterday afternoon's satellite images or from this morning's.  (IR sensors would undoubtedly have shown heat, especially along the fire's eastern perimeter.)

Both Lemolo and Pine Bench are active (see map).

Lemolo is buring near the Umpqua River at the northwest end of Lake Lemolo.  Were it to jump the river, the fire would pose an immediate threat to infrastructure located on the river's west bank and southwards, along the west bank of the lake.

I've labeled Potter (unstaffed,as far as I know) and appears to continue growing to the north.  Watson (staffed and partially plumbed) is also hot.

Today's map shows yesterday's fire perimeters (yellow) with this morning's satellite images superimposed on them.  I've labeled several of the larger fires of the complex and the location of hot spots relative to their perimeters is self-evident.  Click to enlarge.

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Diamond Complex - 6

The report from last night's IR overflight indicates that the Diamond Complex fire has grown to 4,164 (+353) acres.  One additional spot fire was identified by IR, and a total of 8 unnamed very small fires have been identified by means unmentioned.  

The Complex is reported to be 3% contained overall with full containment expected to be by October 16.  (Many of the smaller fires are almost fully contained.)

Resources include 370 personnel (including 6 crews), 3 helos, 34 engines and an unspecified numbers of water tenders and dozers.

Yesterday, the afternoon breezes (gusts were expected to reach 30 - 35 mph) pushed Trail Fire to the northwest, into a previous burn scar, where the fire's intensity lessened.

On the Lemolo fire, a fire line is established east and northeast of the 700 road. Lower humidity and higher wind speeds contributed to increased fire activity, which occurred on the perimeter of the west and northwest. Two helicopters dropped water to slow the fire.

The Ooya and Potter fires remain unstaffed, and both fires showed moderate activity, with Potter cresting its east-west ridge and slopping down the north slope.  Complex mangers are developing a strategy to contain these fires when resources become available.

Access has been established to the Watson fire and a dozer and crews are working the fire.

Firefighters successfully suppressed several spot fires. Several of the newly identified fires were successfully attacked and contained.

Today, active suppression continues with the Lemolo, Trail, Pig Iron and Pine Bench fires as priorities.

I've labeled this morning's Ops IR map as follows:  Yellow arrows indicate intense heat growth;  the white arrow points to the Watson fire and the blue arrow points to the 700 road.  Click to enlarge.

 

 

 

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Diamond Complex - 5

Last night's IR image is not as accurate as usual because the IR interpreter had to use a lower resolution technique than would have been optimal.

With that in mind, the interpreter reports that Diamond Complex has grown to 3,811 acres (+477) over the last 24 hour operational period.  

As expected, new fire starts continue to be discovered, so the Complex has now reached a total of 23 fires.

The most concerning of the fires remain Trail Fire, Lemolo Fire, and Pine Bench Fire.

1)   Trail Fire has grown to the east (as expected) to include about 827 acres.  It's north and south perimeters are lined by dozer cuts and the fire has been checked along its western perimeter at the 138 Highway.

It is being mopped up along it's southwest and western perimeter.  Managers are assessing the conditions to the east, looking for opportunities to attack there.  

2)   Lemolo Fire has expanded along it's northwest and west perimeters (as planned) and is being directed into an old burn scar.  

In the afternoon, its southern perimeter became quite active, advancing south with spotting.  Helos were employed, the fire's advance was checked and the spot fires were controlled.  Lemolo has now burned about 518 acres.

3)  Pine Bench fire has grown along it's west and northwest perimeter and is has burned about 1410 acres.

The efforts of the last few days to slow it's growth along it's southeast perimeter have been successful, and crews have established their anchor point where they'd hoped to.

As for the 3 other larger fires 2 of them Ooya (~123 acres) and Potter (~372 acres) remain unstaffed for the time being.

Crews have been able to reach the 3rd fire (Watson, ~144 acres) with hoses and tankers. None of these firesto have grown appreciably, and each of the many smaller fires appears to have grown minimally (a few acres) if that.  

As of now, there is no indication that additional structures are structures are threatened, and I have little information on resources.

The main concern today is weather:  the forecast calls for gusts up to 30 - 35 mph, which increases the chances for spot fires.

Today's map is an overview (the Operations IR map).  I've added several white arrows to indicate locations where the perimeters of Trail, Lemolo and Pine Bench have grown.  Click to enlarge.

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Diamond Complex - 4

Per last night's IR overflight, the fires of Diamond complex have grown the total acreage to 3,334 acres (~ 318 acres).  Most of that growth seems to have been at the Southeast corner of the fire and probably includes some burnout acreage.  As a group, the complex's fires are 3% contained.

We still have few details about the equipment engaged to fight the fires other than that 10 engines, 3 dozers and 7 water tenders are assigned, along with 243 personnel.  There were no changes in the number or types of threatened structures from what I reported yesterday. 

Air support has been mimimal over the past few days owing to smoke.  Today, conditions should be more favorable for air attacks.  We'll see.

Trail, Lemolo and Pine Bench fires are presently of greatest concern, though crews have made very good progress on all 3.  

TRAIL - 820 IR acres:  The south containment line of Trail has been tied into the highway system and is being mopped up; the western side seems to me to be fairly secure against the roadway and the north line will probably be tied into the road today.  So the fire is being/has been directed to the east, and crews are evaluating how to best attack along that front.

LEMOLO - 404 IR acres:  Yesterday, crews successfully attacked a slop-over and a few spot fires north of the fire, and crews are now creating a line along the northwest edge of the fire to an old burn scar and allow the fire to back down to the road.

PINE BENCH - 1,320 IR acres:  This is currently the largest fire of the complex.  It is most active on it's southeast flank and crews did a controlled burnout to guide the fire to the Umpqua River in order to reduce the risk of a high severity fire reaching H-138.  Crews plan to establish an anchor point in this region.

Several of the smaller fires in the complex have been lined and some are in mop up. A few of the Complex's larger fires (such as Ooya and Potter) show little sign of major activity and are being monitored for the time being.

 

The briefing map follows.  The acreages are based on yesterday's estimates, so they differ from the IR numbers I've provided.  The map's legend is self-explanatory.  The white arrow points to a gray area which is an old burn scar.  The yellow arrow points to the most active front of the Pine Bench fire.  Click to enlarge.

 

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Diamond Complex - 3

Finally, weather and resources allowed an IR overflight.  (IR overflight images are much preferable to satellite images for heat detection and area mapping.)

The IR interpreter estimated that the entire complex has burned about 3,016 Acres, and the number of heats or probable heats is greater than has been previously reported (the interpreter located 11 spots that were heretofore undiscovered - see IR map below).

Many of the new heat detections are very small and the fire's managers are alert to the possibility that they may grow and that in the future even more new hot spots may be detected.  See the 3 maps below.

Currently, 4 residences 70 commercial structures, and 37 other structures threatened.

I do not have a complete list of the resources allocated for this complex:   This morning's report lists 236 personnel, 5 crews, 10 engines and 0 helos.  Yet this morning's summary also reports that air assets were active yesterday and I know that dozers have been active.

Yesterday, crews made good progress on Trail fire, with dozer lines on its north, west and south pereimeters. The emphasis today will continue to be on active suppression prioritising the Lemolo, Trail, Pig Iron and Pine Bench fires.  Crews have made good progress on these (especially Trail) which has dozer lines cut and plumbed on it's north, west and south perimeters.  

The fire listed as "252" fire has been renamed the "Ooya" Fire, and both it and the the Potter Fire are as yet unstaffed, but are being monitored.

The first map is of the IR overflight's hot spots.  It's useful to see how many small spots the IR sensors detected. So far, they've remained small. The Ooya (formerly 252) fire was not inluded in the IR overflight, but I've indicated it's approximate location with a red "X".    Click to enlarge.

The second map is the IR heat spots placed on a topo map, with labels.  Click to enlarge.

The last map is the briefing map, with each fire's size noted in the legend.  Notice the dozer lines along the north, west and south of the Trail Fire.  Click to enlarge.

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