JoCo Forest Fire Watch

Dixon - 1

Sorry I missed Dixon until this morning.

On Saturday about 2:40 PM, a fire broke out about 30 miles north of Medford. Originally called the Tiller Trail Fire, it was subsequently renamed the Dixon Fire.

Since its start, the fire has grown to roughly 2,000 acres.

The fire began in windy conditions and initially grew very quickly. Evacuation notices of all 3 levels (1 = Ready, 2 = Get set. 3 = Go) were issued even while local resources attacked the blaze.

As of today, 1 residence has been destroyed (on Saturday) and 49 additional residences are threatened, while 3 minor structures have been destroyed and 64 are threatened.

The fire's very rapid initial growth and the immediate danger to structures prompted the governor to issue an emergency conflagration order Saturday evening and teams (including structural protection crews) were quickly assembled and dispatched to the fire.

The resources now on site include 618 personnel (16 crews), 12 helos and 37 engines. (Other assets not mentioned probably include fixed wing aircraft and tenders.)

The fire's growth has since slowed substantially and crews have been able to create lines quickly, some of those utilizing roadways, and have had good access for dozer operations. The fire is almost completely lined and some crews are laying water lines even as other crews have begun mopping up (especially along the north west and north perimeter.

The primary area of today's effort will likely be the south and southeast portions of the fire, and the fire is to be attacked heavily by aircraft today.

Today's overall objectives are to tighten up current lines (mainly along the north and east lengths of the perimeter) construct some indirect line (along the southeast portion of the perimeter).  

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The first image shows the fire's location relative to Medford and Grants Pass.  Click to enlarge.

The second image is an enlargement of last night's IR overflight.  Click to enlarge.

The third image is of today's briefing map.  Notice how much of the fire crews have been able to line.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 14

Unless there is a dramatic change, this will be my final post on Park

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For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park Fire has grown from yesterday's total of about 426,530 acres to today's total of about 428,744 acres (+ roughly 2,215 acres).  It remains about 34% contained.

The resources available for it are about the same as previously reported, with a slight reduction of personnel.  

The noteworthy statistic, new to me, is the helo mix of types:  there are 18 Type 1 helos, 4 Type 2s and 5 type 3s.  The Type 1 helos are huge.

The fire's perimeter is mostly quiet, with much of it in the west, north and southeast with crews being on "patrol" status, available to catch any heat near or outside perimeter.

The fire is most active in its northeast area, where it had exploded a couple of days ago and was aggressively burning into yesterday.

Yesterday and last night, crews "went direct" and were able to line hot areas in the southwest of the fire's expansion and around and up the slopes of Doe Mountain (see map). 

The result of this is that the firefighters appear to have gained the upper hand in the most active areas.  We'll hope.

The weather will become more favorable for crews from today on, with higher humidity levels (up to 15% - 20% tonight and perhaps as high as 60% - 70% tomorrow) and somewhat lower temperatures.

The fuel load is so dry, though, that the affects of increased humidity may not immediately affect the fire's behavior.

Spot fires will likely not be a big problem today:  of those that occur, many will be down-slope, meaning they will burn upwards towards the main fire, and breezes will likely blow from the west, meaning that any spots from the southwest portion of the recent explosion will be driven towards the fire by breeze as well as slope.

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The first map is an overview of the fire from last night's IR overflight.  I edited out the "isolated heat" hot spots to reduce clutter.  This morning's perimeter is red, yesterday's is turquoise/green, and the day before yesterday's perimeter is white.  Otherwise, the map should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second map is an enlargement of the northeast quadrant of the overview map on which I superimposed the most recent satellite hot spots (The most recent hot spots are 0-6 hours old and 6-12 hours old as of about 1:00AM today.). I used the same perimeter colors as above, and the yellow line approximates the newly-constructed control line.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 13

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park grew from yesterday morning's total of about 420,850 acres to today's morning total of about 426,530 acres (+ about 5,700).  It remains 34% contained.

Today, the resources are approximately what they've been for the past few days, and there has been little or no change in the number of destroyed, damaged and undamaged structures previously reported.

The fire was quite active yesterday and significant activity is expected again today with medium distance spotting owing to very dry weather, very dry fuel loads and very low humidity with little recovery from the low humidity expected tonight.

The terrain will favor uphill runs.

In the last operational period, Park's growth was in it's northeast quadrant (the Mill Creek area) along the east flank of Turner Mountain towards Mineral. (See maps below.)

To me, it looks like the plan might be to drive the fire towards the 2021 scar of the Dixie Fire, just to the east of Park, where there's precious little fuel.

Yesterday evening, I monitored air activity over the fire for about 5 minutes.  

During that time I was able to identify no fewer than 8 helos, several smaller fixed wing aircraft (they looked to me to be observation aircraft) and at least 1 Very Large Air Tanker and 1 Large Air Tanker (from New South Wales, Australia), all operating to south and/or the east of Mineral.

The weather conditions should improve a bit in the coming days, but as far as I can tell, the change won't be one of dramatic improvement.

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The first image is an overview of last night's IR overflight.  I've omitted the "isolated heat" dots to reduce clutter.  The white line is yesterday's perimeter.  The rest should be self explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second image is an enlargement of the area showing the fire's growth over the last operational period.  The white line is yesterday's perimeter.  Otherwise, the image should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 12

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park fire has reportedly grown to 420,847 acres (+ about 6,800 acres from yesterday's estimate of 414,042 acres. The fire is listed as 34% contained.

Today, there are 6,593 personnel (including 128 crews and 128 "other assigned" individuals), 40 helos, 522 engines, 191 dozers, 153 water tenders and an unknown number of fixed wing aircraft, including firefighting air tankers. At least one of these is a Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT, DC-10).

Park fire's growth had been mainly up the Mill Creek drainage, but when the fire exploded about 24 - 36 hours ago, it escaped over drainage's rims and past the containment lines, throwing many spot fires ahead of it.

Over the last 24 hours, firefighters have had to retreat from their attacks at least once, as they had to the day before.

In response to the fire's aggressive behavior, crews have conducted extensive burning operations, which are difficult to control:  large operations risk crews losing control of their own creation and can add to the fire's potential destructiveness instead of checking it.  (see map)

Additionally, yesterday and into early evening numerous helos and at least one VLAT attacked the perimeter of the fire nearest to Mineral.

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The first image is an IR overview of the fire produced by last night's overflight.  Once again I've removed the "isolated heat" markings to reduce clutter.  The white squiggly line at the northeast is yestereday's IR perimeter.  This should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second image is an enlargement of the northeast perimeter.  I've labeled key elements of it, and the label "Burn Operation" refers to the entire arch at the tip of the arrow.  Otherwise, it should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 11

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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As of about 7:30 this morning, the Park Fire has reportedly burned 414,042 acres (+ roughly 12,300 acres) from the roughly 401,740 acres reported yesterday.

Yes, growth of about 12,300 acres.  In short, the fire exploded.

Resources assigned include 6,588 personnel (including 134 crews and 128 "other personnel"), who are supported by 40 helos, 525 engines, 192 dozers, 153 water tenders and "numerous fixed wing" firefighting air tankers.

There has been no change in the assessment of destroyed or damaged structures.

So here's how things appear to have unfolded, at least to my amature's mind.

From roughly noon yesterday until about 3:30 PM, the fire grew about 1,500 acres north, out of the Mill Creek drainage with spotting northwards across dozer lines.

The run was driven by mild but steady westerly winds, topography, very low humidity and receptive fuels.

The isolated spot fires consolidated and the fire spread quickly northwards. The firefighters evacuated the north rim of Mill Creek about 3:30 PM and drove north to HW 36 in the town of Mineral to regroup.

The north run has reached the south flank of Turner Mountain and is evidently making a run up the mountain.

The fire's explosion happened so quickly that one firefighter was burned and flight-evacuated out, and several engines were trapped.  Fingers crossed and prayers for the injured firefighter.

The fire's growth continued up and out of the Mill Creek drainage.

In about 2 - 3 hours (roughly 5:30 PM - 7:30 PM), the two fingers of the fire (north and south upslopes) joined in the drainage, the fire breached additional control lines and grew about another 2,700 acres, where, on the south, it established itself on the Mill Creek plateau.

The maps, created from data obtained shortly after midnight, tell some of the story.  More has undoubtedly happened since then.
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The first map is of last night's IR overflight.  I've omitted the "isolated heat" spots from the image.  Notice the area of "intense heat."  Click to enlarge.

The second map is of last night's perimeter with the latest satellite heat superimposed on it.  Click to enlarge.

The final map is an enlargement of the Mill Creek drainage and surrounding area.  The yellow perimeter line (yellow arrow, bottom left quadrant) is yesterday's perimeter.  The white line approximates the course of Mill Creek and the two blue lines approximate the drainage's rim, where some of the now-breached control lines are. Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 10

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Park Fire is reported to have grown slightly from yesterday's total of 401,279 acres to roughly 401,740 acres (+ about 161 acres).  It's containment has increased from yesterday's reported 30% to today's 34%.  

The fire continues to be most active along its northeastern end, especially in the Mill Creek area.

There are reported to be 6,529 personnel (including 117 crews and 117 "others") assigned to the fire, and the personnel are supported by 44 helos, 532 engines, 196 dozers, 154 tenders and (probably) an unspecified number of fixed wing firefighting air tankers.

Damage Inspection Teams are at 100% completion of their assessments, and report a total of 640 destroyed structures and 52 damaged structures. Crews have identified 1159 undamaged structures.

Firefighters have been able to build and widen lines using a mix of roads, dozerlines and handlines heading south from Highway 36, across the front of the fire and are now turning the corner and connecting to a road that parallels the north rim of Mill Creek.

On the south rim of Mill Creek, crews are using heavy equipment to open forest roads and laying hose lines to prevent the fire from moving south and east.

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I have only one map today, and that is of today's IR perimeter with satellite hot spots superimposed on it. (On the IR image, the interior of the perimeter is filled to overflowing with "hot spots" so I didn't include it.) 

I've indicated the locations of Highway 36 and Mill Creek on it with white lines.  The crews are completing a line from HW 36 to Mill Creek, though I don't know exactly where.

The yellow arrows indicate areas of "intense heat" (obscured by the satellite images) that are areas of immediate concern.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 9

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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Currently, the Park Fire is the 4th largest in California's history. (Caveat: we don't know know the size of fires that burned in what is now California prior to California becoming a state.)

The fire reportedly has burned 401,279 acres and is 30% contained.

Today, there are 6,518 personnel assigned to the fire (including 107 crews and 107 "Other assigned"). They are supported by 45 helos, 537 engines, 193 dozers, 153 water tenders and an unknown number of fixed wing firefighting air tankers.

The Damage Assessment teams have completed 95% of their assessments and report that 572 structures have been destroyed and 52 structures have been damaged. Crews have reported that roughly 1,150 structures are undamaged.

In some areas fire suppression is already under way, and evacuation levels have been reduced in certain regions (though evacuation levels may be increased if warranted).

Yesterday, the fire was moderated by wet thunderstorms and cloud cover. The weather cleared in the afternoon which allowed some increase in the fire's activity.

In general, where possible crews going direct (notably to the west of Tuner Mountian) and they continue to utilize control lines from previous fires. (See maps)

The perimeter of the fire is still burning in very receptive fuel beds, especially along the Northeast perimeter where it is well established in the exceptionally difficult-to-reach (steep, rocky verticals) of Mill Creek drainage. (See maps.)

The first map is of last night's IR perimeter with satellite hot spots superimposed on it.  It should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

The second map is of the IR heat spots projected onto a topographic map.  It reveals how much heat still remains inside the fire's perimeter.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 8

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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This morning, Park Fire has grown from about 397,629 acres (yesterday's estimate) to approximately 400,960 acres (roughly +3,330 acres).  The fire is about 27% contained.

The Damage Inspection Teams have completed 94% of their assessments. In total, the fire has destroyed 567 structures and damaged 51 other structures.  

Approximately 1020 structures have been reported as undamaged.

As of today, there are 6,501 personnel (including 127 crews and 99 "other") assigned to the fire. They are supported by 45 Helos, 536 Engines, 153 Dozers, 127 Water tenders and "numerous" firefighting air tankers.

Overnight, the fire was active but its behavior was moderated by moisture and shade provided by clouds and smoke.

The fire is fueled by heavy, dry grass, brush, mixed timber and dead and downed vegetation, all of which are receptive to fire.

While the fire grew at unprecedented rates during its first few days, the weather moderated the following days, and this caused the fire's behavior to moderate as well.  This bought time for planning and the construction of the first containment lines.

Those lines have been extended greatly and other lines added.  Still more lines are planned.

The existing containment lines will be tested with the fire increasing its activity due to the return of hot, dry weather. This will increase the likelihood of spot fires, and the continued possibility of thunderstorms and gusty winds accompanying them could further challenge the effectiveness of containment lines.

Crews will continue to improve and extend existing lines, build new ones and open lines from previous fires.

Near populated areas, crews will remove hazardous trees and utility crews will be restoring services as opportunity presents.

Overnight, smoke, atmospheric moisture and clouds reduced confidence in the IR data (there may be undetected hot areas, and its hard to distingish between individual hot spots). Satellite sensors seem to have been also affected.  But we can still see get an approximate idea of the distribution of hot spots.  Click to enlarge.

I've included today's briefing map. It should be self-explanatory, but do notice the black-lined permimeter.  That length is reported as "contained."  My apologies for the suboptimal quality of this image.  Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 7

The Park fire has grown to about 397,629 acres (+approximately 6,400 acres, as I calculated based on yesterday's estimates).  The fire is reportedly 24% contained.  

(There was an overnight IR flight, but both the interpreter's estimate of the fire's size and it's growth in the last 24 hours were "omitted at ICT request."  ICT = Information Communications Technology, a component of the ICS  [Incident Command System].)

Currently, there are about 6,305 personnel (including 123 crews) assigned to the fire, plus 41 helos,  537 engines, 90 dozers and 148 water tenders.  (There are also about 90 "other" personnel assigned.) 

So far, the Damage Assessment teams have completed 88% of their evaluations and report 542 structures destroyed and 50 damaged.  The teams report approximately 1,100 structures are undamaged.

CalFire reports that the primary heavy fuel loads (annual grasses, brush and mixed timber) are at near record-levels of low moisture and therefore are very receptive to fire.

Moreover, fires burning in drainages and areas of lava rock are hard to access and that makes suppression especially difficult, with dense smoke making it especially difficult or impossible for fixed wing aircraft to operate in some drainages.

Today and through the next few days there is a potential for thunderstorms nearby.  Such storms can cause outflow winds, with the potential for erratic fire behavior.  Plus, there is a potential for new lightning-started fires in the area.

Crews continue to build containment lines and conduct structure defense in affected areas.

The IR overflight map for today will not reproduce well because it shows an unusually large number of "isolated hot spots" within the fire's perimeter (and some outside it).  

(I speculate that the increased number of hot spots might reflect a change in the filter sensitivity the IR team used.  These individual hot-spots merge together into large masses unless you greatly enlarge the image (which I couldn't post).  Such specifity would be very useful to the IMT, but precludes my using them.)

So there is only one map today, and that will be of the fire's perimeter with last night's satellite hot-spots superimposed on it.  Their location pretty well reflects the location of "intense heat" that the IR overflight revealed. Click to enlarge.

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Park Fire, CA - 6

For the location of Park fire within California, scroll to the second image here.

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The data from last night's IR overflight was incomplete:  there was no data from the northeast perimeter, presumably owing to interference by smoke. (See first image)

So by rough estimate, Park fire has grown to about 391,200 acres (+ about 1,400 acres).  

There was no new estimate of containment, but I'm guessing it's increased a little from yesterdays report of 18%.

Yesterday, there were 5,953 personnel (including 117 crews) assigned to the fire, supported by 41 helos, 508 engines, 180 dozers, 117 water tenders and (again) an unspecified number of firefighting air tankers.

So far, 437 structures  have been destroyed and 42 damaged. (The total number destroyed and damaged includes infrastructure.).  Damage assessment is about 80% complete.

Last night, the temperatures dropped to 55-60 degrees and humidity was at about 45% - 50%.

That's the good news.  The ominous news is that the weather is expected to change from Friday through Monday, with higher temperatures (+100 degrees) and lower humidity (lows of 15% - 20%).

Additionally, thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend with winds of 30-45 mph, so there's a real possbility of additional fire starts around Park.

So overall, weather conditions look like they will strongly favor the fire over the next few days, which is already burning in terrain that includes heavy, receptive fuel beds.

Speaking of terrain:  the terrain itself is tough and remote.  Lava rocks make for hard and slow work for hand crews, and crews are being flown into areas that have been hard to reach because of long drive times and steep, rugged terrain. 

The IR interpreter notes that while there were no areas of "intense heat" detected last night, there were large areas of scattered heat and individual fires scattered within Park's perimeter.

The first image is the IR overflight image.  The white perimeter is estimated, and the whitish area within the blue boundaries is "missing data." Click to enlarge.

The second image is my hybrid of last night's satellite hotspots superimposed on the last night's (estimated) perimeter.  This image should be self-explanatory.  Click to enlarge.

 

 

 

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